【Abstract】 This paper estimate the forward- looking,backward- looking and Hybrid Taylor Rule,and then bring them into the New Keynesian DSGE Model to simulate the Effects of the three monetary policy. The results show that: The Central Bank can play a good role in controlling the economic fluctuation and maintaining the Macroeconomic Stability by adjusting the short-term nominal interest rate according to the rational expectations. Monetary shock is the main reason to give rise to the economic fluctuation,preference shock,monetary demand shock and technology shock are all non- significant. So,the Central Bank should bring the rational expectations and adaptive expectations into the frame of monetary policy,so as to increase the flexibility of the monetary policy. Meanwhile,the government sector should speed up technological progress,promote the upgrade industries and improve welfare of the residents,and create a good condition to stabilize the economic subjects of the expectations and enhance the forward-looking monetary policy.
【Keywords】 Taylor Rule;DSGE Model;Policy Effects;Dynamic Simulation;
(原文刊于《金融经济学研究（英文精华版2014）》，中山大学出版社，2015年1月)